Washington St.

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	179.0
Current RPI:	179
Expected SOS:	63
Current SOS:	63
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	90
Expected OOC SOS:	76

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	179.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	86-84	W	100%
11-15	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	75-59	W	100%
11-18	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	83-62	W	100%
11-23	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	N	75-71	W	100%
11-24	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	N	84-79	W	100%
11-26	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	N	86-93	W	100%
12-2	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	67-81	L	0%
12-6	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	91-64	L	0%
12-9	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	76-69	L	0%
12-16	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	72-59	W	100%
12-20	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	H	65-68	L	0%
12-22	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	86-58	W	100%
12-29	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	96-82	L	0%
12-31	USC (34.0)	P12	A	89-71	L	0%
1-6	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	65-70	L	0%
1-11	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	70-79	L	0%
1-13	California (216.0)	P12	H	78-53	W	100%
1-18	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	82-73	L	0%
1-21	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	82-69	L	0%
1-28	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	80-62	L	0%
1-31	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	72-100	L	0%
2-4	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	78-88	L	0%
2-8	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	94-62	L	0%
2-11	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	84-57	L	0%
2-15	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	73-69	W	100%
2-17	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	70-77	L	0%
2-22	California (216.0)	P12	A	76-78	W	100%
2-24	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	86-84	L	0%
3-1	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	78-76	W	100%
3-3	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	67-92	L	0%
3-7	Oregon (72.0)	P12	N	64-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Washington St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Washington St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Washington St.	P12	26.24	26.24	33.58	33.58	-8.62	-8.62
Oregon	P12	5.54	5.54	64.52	64.52	1.61	1.61
Washington	P12	4.11	4.11	60.00	60.00	0.82	0.82
California	P12	3.97	3.97	27.59	27.59	-1.78	-1.78
Oregon St.	P12	3.95	3.95	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
Stanford	P12	3.93	3.93	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
Utah	P12	3.92	3.92	60.71	60.71	0.84	0.84
Colorado	P12	3.90	3.90	53.33	53.33	0.26	0.26
USC	P12	2.56	2.56	66.67	66.67	0.85	0.85
Arizona St.	P12	2.54	2.54	63.33	63.33	0.68	0.68
Arizona	P12	2.52	2.52	78.79	78.79	1.45	1.45
UCLA	P12	2.49	2.49	64.52	64.52	0.72	0.72
Seattle	WAC	1.77	1.77	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Idaho St.	BSky	1.69	1.69	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.69	1.69	87.50	87.50	1.27	1.27
San Diego St.	MWC	1.69	1.69	70.00	70.00	0.68	0.68
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.68	1.68	45.45	45.45	-0.15	-0.15
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.66	1.66	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
UC Davis	BW	1.66	1.66	65.52	65.52	0.52	0.52
Idaho	BSky	1.64	1.64	67.86	67.86	0.59	0.59
Kansas St.	B12	1.64	1.64	65.62	65.62	0.51	0.51
IUPUI	Horz	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
UTEP	CUSA	1.61	1.61	31.03	31.03	-0.61	-0.61
Portland St.	BSky	0.29	0.29	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.26	0.26	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.22	0.22	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Southern Utah	BSky	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.22	0.22	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	16.67	16.67	-0.14	-0.14
Cal Poly	BW	0.21	0.21	24.14	24.14	-0.11	-0.11
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.20	0.20	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.19	0.19	13.33	13.33	-0.14	-0.14
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	83.33	83.33	0.12	0.12
UC Irvine	BW	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.18	0.18	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Gonzaga	WCC	0.18	0.18	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Pacific	WCC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.16	14.29	14.29	-0.12	-0.12
UC Riverside	BW	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
UNLV	MWC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Utah Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01